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Thursday, March 8, 2012

Does Gold Still Sparkle for Morgan Stanley and Germany?


Wednesday March 07, 2012 16:03
It has been a rough week for precious metals.  On Tuesday, renewed Greek concerns drove gold down $32 to close at $1,672.10 per ounce.  It was gold’s lowest close and first time settling below $1,700 since late January.  Meanwhile, silver fell 91 cents to end the day at $32.78 per ounce.  Although gold prices have pulled back recently, Morgan Stanley and Germany appear to still have plenty of interest in the precious metal.
Morgan Stanley still believes there are four main pillars that gold’s bull market will rely on to climb higher.  The first pillar involves the decline of producer hedging.  A miner seeking to protect itself from a falling gold price may choose to sell anticipated production for delivery at a future date, adding more gold supply into the market.  Although producer hedging increased for the first time in a decade last year, it is not expected to have a material impact.  The World Gold Council explains, “Hedging as a source of supply is expected to stay muted as the practice of wholesale industry-wide hedging activity has proved damaging to the industry in the long run.”
The inability of gold mining companies to increase gold supplies materially is also a pillar of strength for the gold bull market.  With gold prices reaching a new all-time nominal high last year, gold production also reached an all-time high of 2,810 tonnes.  However, this only represents a 4 percent increase from 2010.  Furthermore, mine production only grew 2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011, signaling that miners will dial back as gold prices dip.  Labor, energy and infrastructure issues in regions such as South Africa also dampened mine production.
The last two pillars of strength involve gold demand by emerging central banks and investors.  Not only have central banks dramatically scaled back gold sales, but they have turned into net buyers.  In the past two years, central banks have purchased more than 500 tonnes of gold.  “The net buying trend which started in Q2 2009 has proliferated, as emerging market central banks have continued to add gold on increasing concerns about the creditworthiness and low yields of their existing reserve assets.  Both the euro area sovereign crisis and the sovereign debt downgrade in the U.S. during the summer of 2011 have compounded these worries,” states WGC.  Meanwhile, investment demand for gold reached a record of 1,640.7 tonnes in 2011, representing a 5 percent increase from the previous record of 1,567.5 tonnes set in 2010.
As the financial markets remain in turmoil, central banks and investors will turn to gold as a hedge against the wall of worry facing the world.  Earlier this year, Venezuela’s central bank received its last shipment of gold bars in a move that repatriated 160 tonnes of the precious metal held abroad.  Apparently, with Greece and other countries teetering on the edge of the financial cliff, Germany is becoming increasingly concerned with its own gold reserves.  According to German newspaper Bild, German lawmakers are planning to review Bundesbank controls of and management of Germany’s gold reserves.  GoldCore reports, “There is increasing nervousness amongst the German public, German politicians and indeed the Bundesbank itself regarding the gigantic risk on the balance sheet of Germany’s central bank and this is leading some in Germany to voice concerns about the location and exact amount of Germany’s gold reserves.”  According to the latest data from the WGC, Germany holds nearly 3,400 tonnes of gold, representing 71.4 percent of its reserves.  It is believed that more than half of Germany’s gold is held in storage facilities outside of the country, in places such as the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
By Eric McWhinnie

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A child finds a shiny rock in a creek, thousands of years ago, and the human race


is introduced to gold for the first time.


Gold was first discovered as shining, yellow nuggets. "Gold is where you find it," so the saying goes,


and gold was first discovered in its natural state, in streams all over the world. No doubt it was the


first metal known to early hominids.


Gold became a part of every human culture. Its brilliance, natural beauty, and luster, and its


great malleability and resistance to tarnish made it enjoyable to work and play with.


Because gold is dispersed widely throughout the geologic world, its discovery occurred to many different groups in many different


locales.


And nearly everyone who found it was impressed with it, and so was the developing culture in which they lived.


Gold was the first metal widely known to our species. When thinking about the historical progress of technology,


we consider the development of iron and copper-working as the greatest contributions to our species' economic and cultural progress –


but gold came first.


Gold is the easiest of the metals to work. It occurs in a virtually pure and workable state,


whereas most other metals tend to be found in ore-bodies that pose some difficulty in smelting.


Gold's early uses were no doubt ornamental, and its brilliance and permanence (it neither corrodes


nor tarnishes) linked it to deities and royalty in early civilizations .


Gold has always been powerful stuff. The earliest history of human interaction with gold is long lost to us, but its association with


the gods, with immortality, and with wealth itself are common to many cultures throughout the world.


Early civilizations equated gold with gods and rulers, and gold was sought in their name and dedicated to their glorification.


Humans almost intuitively place a high value on gold, equating it with power, beauty, and the cultural elite.


And since gold is widely distributed all over the globe, we find this same thinking about gold throughout ancient


And modern civilizations everywhere.

Gold, beauty, and power have always gone together. Gold in ancient times was made into shrines and idols


("the Golden Calf"), plates, cups, vases and vessels of all kinds, and of course, jewelry for personal adornment.



The "Gold of Troy" treasure hoard, excavated in Turkey and dating to the era 2450 -2600 B.C., show the range of gold-work


from delicate jewelry to a gold gravy boat weighing a full troy pound. This was a time when gold was highly valued,


but had not yet become money itself. Rather, it was owned by the powerful and well-connected, or made into objects of worship,


or used to decorate sacred locations.

Gold has always had value to humans, even before it was money. This is demonstrated by the extraordinary efforts made to obtain it.


Prospecting for gold was a worldwide effort going back thousands of years, even before the first money in the form of


gold coins appeared about 700 B.C.


In the quest for gold by the Phoenicians, Egyptians, Indians, Hittites, Chinese, and others, prisoners of war were sent to


work the mines, as were slaves and criminals. And this happened during a time when gold had no value as 'money,'


but was just considered a desirable commodity in and of itself.

The 'value' of gold was accepted all over the world. Today, as in ancient times, the intrinsic appeal of gold itself has that


universal appeal to humans. But how did gold come to be a commodity, a measurable unit of value?


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